May 1, 2008

India : Stability Returns, Bilateral Cooperation Surges

Key Trends  

• No forward movement on 123 Agreement, however dangers of mid term elections fade away.
• UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi visits China meets Chinese leadership, party to party relationship strengthened.
• Indo Russian Governmental Commission meets in Moscow. Trilateral Sino-India-Russian Foreign Ministers meet held in Harbin, China.
• China seeks compromise on boundary issue but Towang remains a bone of contention. Sikkim border bunkers issue again raised during the month.
• India joins US-backed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. Agreement will be signed between the four nations on November 28-29.
• Adapting to widening spectrum of conflict is focus of Commanders Conference
• Indo Russian Defence Dialogue culminates into agreement for joint development of Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft.
• Agni I - user trials conducted successfully. All parameters successfully met.
• Army Aviation Corps is in expansion mode with a well articulated plan of induction and up gradation of air craft and human resources.
• Indian Air Force (IAF) : The challenges for a strategic force delivering transportability of national power remain technology adaptation and human resource development.
• India`s Aero Space Industry needs identified as covering the technology gap through adaptation, joint projects and synergy between the stakeholders.
• Tejas LCA Fires - Close Combat Missile test fired. 

Foreign Policy

Indo US 123 Nuclear Agreement 

There was no forward movement on the Indo US 123 Agreement. However the threat of the Agreement destabilizing the government has now passed off, with the Congress Party firmly indicating that the Government would not be put to risk. The UPA Left Committee on the nuclear deal has held five meetings so far and is slated to meet again on 16 November. There is a difference in perception with the Government stating that going to the IAEA is not operationalisation, while the Left Parties indicating as the first step towards the same. Mr Prakash Karat, General Secretary CPM has appreciated the Government for not making the nuclear deal an issue for mid term elections and indicated that the Left Parties wanted the government to last a full term. (Interview to Daily Telegraph on 30 October)

While there has been all round disappointment, particularly in the USA, efforts at regaining momentum continue with a number of American policy makers and opinion leaders flying to India including, the indefatigable Mr Henry Kissinger. These leaders have not been able to influence the main opponents to the Agreement, the CPM leadership. The problems were conveyed by India at the apex level with Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh speaking to President George W Bush on 15 October, as per release from the Prime Minister`s Office, "The Prime Minister explained to President Bush that certain difficulties have arisen with respect to the operationalisation of the India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement."

According to some other analysts, technical problems may also have been one of the reasons for putting the Agreement on hold. A Daily Telegraph Report by K P Nayar indicated that India is likely to sign agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), "only after the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) finds a way to allow its members to engage in nuclear commerce with India followed by an absolute certainty that the US Congress will vote for the 123 Agreement successfully negotiated between Washington and New Delhi". Indian policy makers as per Nayar have realized that in case it goes in for Agreement with the IAEA, and the NSG refuses to change its rules or the US Congress rejects the 123 Agreement, India will have to abide by IAEA commitments without getting the necessary benefits. (Daily Telegraph Report by K P Nayar).

India-Pakistan Conventional and Nuclear Confidence Building Measures

The fourth round of India -Pakistan Expert Level Dialogue on Conventional Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and fifth round of India-Pakistan expert-level talks on nuclear and missiles related CBMs were held in New Delhi on 18 and 19 October.

Comments

No forward movement was expected in this dialogue as political uncertainties in both India and akistan implied that respective governments were not in a position to put across any concrete proposals for further defusing tensions.

Indo Russian Relations

13th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC) was held on 12th October. Discussions were held between the External Affairs Minister of India, Mr Pranab Mukherjee and co-Chairman from the Russian side, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov. The IRIGC has five working Groups. Four groups on trade and economy, metallurgy and mines, technology, tourism and culture have met earlier. The Working Group on Energy met on 11th October. There was some consternation however when the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov could not meet the Indian External Affairs due to commitments with a visiting US delegation. Some circles inferred that this as a deliberate ploy keeping in view coldness over a number of issues between India and Russia recently. However both the ministers met up later at Harbin separately during the India , Russia and China Trilateral meet.

Trilateral Foreign Minister`s Meet

The Joint Communiqué of the Meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the People`s Republic of China , the Republic of India and the Russian Federation in Harbin , China indicated growing coagulation of interests between the three major players fostering global multipolarity. Consultation and working-level mechanisms at the level of Director-General / Division Head between the three Foreign Ministries to strengthen trilateral coordination and cooperation on regional and international issues and to implement agreements reached at the three Foreign Ministers` meetings was also agreed upon. Agriculture, disaster management, medicine and health were the areas identified for such consultations. (Based on inputs from MEA India Press Release). In the follow up press meet, India , China and Russia opposed fresh Western sanctions on Myanmar . "There should not be any sanctions at this stage," India `s External Affairs Minister, Mukherjee declared while his Chinese colleague felt that the situation in Myanmar was now "calming down". Further sanctions, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov felt, would only aggravate the situation in Myanmar . Comments. It is evident that focus of the Meet was to continue dialogue for a joint approach to geopolitical issues such as Myanmar and Iran , where interests of the three countries are directly in conflict with that of the US and other western nations.

Sino Indian Relations

Party to Party Relationship - Sonia Visits China

China continued to dominate the Indian political spectrum. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, held high-profile meetings with UPA Chair Person and Congress President, Mrs Sonia Gandhi. Hu said China-India relations had developed in depth and enjoyed good momentum in recent years, noting that long-term friendship, cooperation with mutual benefits and common development between the two nations would change Asia and the world "in a profound way". Sonia, accompanied by her son Rahul Gandhi among others, became the first foreign political leader to be received by the new Chinese leadership after the 17 th CPC Congress. Sonia said India was willing to make joint efforts with China to strengthen friendly relations and promote bilateral exchanges.

Sino Indian Boundary Issue - Towang Remains Contentious

China maintained the confrontational tempo on the boundary issue with India. In a significant statement former Chinese Ambassador to India, Zhou Gang stated, " I made it clear on many occasions to the Indian public -- Tawang belongs to China, it is the birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama and the Dalai Lama is 'China's Dalai Lama', who cannot be 'India's Dalai Lama'." He emphasized on the principles of mutual understanding, mutual accommodation and mutual adjustment so as to obtain a final package settlement and stated that "I think if the Indian side can make substantial adjustment in the East sector, the Chinese side will make its adjustment in the Western sector accordingly," Zhou is now a senior consultant with the Chinese Foreign Ministry and also a Senior Adviser to China Institute for International Strategic Studies. Comments. Former diplomats are invariably used by the Chinese side to explore fresh options. These comments when placed in perspective with the Chinese retracing their earlier stance of keeping areas with settled populations outside the purview of the dispute indicates that the current stand off on the border issue is primarily over Towang. Beijing is establishing a religious linkage between Towang and Tibet. India will also find it difficult to compromise on the issue, thus the Sino Indian boundary issue is likely to remain in cold storage in the months ahead.

On 10 October Chinese claimed that India had built 'facilities' on its side of the Sikkim border in 'violation' of the bilateral agreement on maintaining peace in the region. Indian government sources also said that Chinese army personnel had been transgressing at certain places along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in an attempt to assert their claim on certain Indian territories. "We ( India and China) have different perceptions of LAC, we know where the differences are," the sources said. (DNA India Report). In the annual conference Indo Tibetan Police Force (ITBP) Director General VK Joshi indicated that there were 141 incidents of incursion by the Chinese in the past one year, with most of them taking place in Ladakh. China also loomed large in the "strategic review" held in the military operations room in South Block on 26 October, which was attended by Army commanders. ( http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India-China_ties_Tensions_remain/articleshow/2493893.cms ). India is also upgrading infra structure on the Sino Indian border a Rs 1,400 Crore project to build 27 roads to improve accessibility from 37 per cent to 76 per cent in the border areas.

Joint Forces Policy and Strategic Capability Building

Defence Policy

Widening Spectrum of Conflict - Focus Of Commanders Conference

Examining implications of the widening spectrum of conflict on national strategy and capacity building was the key focus of the conference of commanders of the three services and combined commander`s held during the month. There was considerable emphasis by the Defence Minister on the need for a maritime strategy that would deny or reduce the freedom of the enemy to employ the maritime environment keeping in view India`s growing trade and energy sea lines of communications. Developing balanced and combat-ready forces for both conventional as well as low intensity conflict was a primary requirement. Defence forces had to thus reorient themselves with changing times where future wars will be high technology intensive, shorter in duration, demanding higher levels of endurance and soldiers will be required to use high-end weapons. Services would evolve into technology intensive and networked force operating in an integrated manner exploiting high-end technology, sifting and transferring data in real time, enabling quick decision-making. Joint ness and integration is not merely a desire, but an urgent need of the hour. It is a process that is destined to grow. Synergy can produce better results, than individual efforts.

Modernisation had to follow the path of indigenization for which Research and Development projects had to be completed in a time bound manner with all stake holders working as a team. While the country has demonstrated capability for building platforms, indigenous weapons and sensors need to be inducted for which collaborative projects with the DRDO seems to be the way ahead. In induction of defence technologies and weapon systems, the urgent need of the hour is to change mindsets, in tune with the changing times - where transparency and fairness are the buzzwords. Steps like institutionalization of Defence Planning Process and refinement of Defence Procurement Procedure have added urgency in the methodology and transparency in functioning. Another instrument towards change is delegation of powers and transition towards fusion of authority, responsibility and accountability. Judicious and optimal utilization of funds to avoid time and cost overruns was essential for which project management monitoring mechanisms were envisaged. (MOD India Press Release).

Human resource management, to attract and retain the best available talent would be a key factor. Modernisation of man management with special emphasis on stress management was relevant. Regular and enhanced interaction with all ranks both qualitatively and quantitatively was therefore significant.

The Indian Army unveiled its Space Vision 2020. Utilization of space at tactical, operational and strategic levels, and desired operational capabilities and space assets, was discussed. The Army realizes the importance of space as a vital arena for future exploitation and has already established a "Space Cell" in the Army HQ to coordinate space based applications in a joint services operational environment. The deliberations during the conference were aimed at ratifying the Army`s space philosophy; concept of utilization of space at tactical, operational and strategic levels; desired operational capabilities and related ground and space assets. Space applications are expected to enhance functional effectiveness of the Army even in non-combat operations through use of space-based communications, weather forecasts, avalanche warnings and navigation. Towards this, the issue of consolidation and convergence of networks to cater to appropriate redundancies was deliberated upon at length.

The Army Commanders conference also took a holistic review of the security environment, status of operational readiness as also appraisal of situation in J&K and the North East. The aspects of force modernization including battlefield transparency, long range precision engagement and integral air-mobility came up for in-depth discussions as part of the overall review as also an appraisal of the progress made in transforming the Army from platform centric to network enabled and finally to a fully network centric force was also carried out. The other issues addressed during the conference were effective management of ammunition and ex-Servicemen Contributory Health Scheme (ECHS). (Based on media inputs and MOD Press Release).

Commanders of the Indian Air Force (IAF) also discussed separately the need to adapt to the changing dimensions of modern warfare. "We must continue to adapt and evolve our operational orientations, strategies and capabilities to match the increasing demands of vital national interests," IAF chief, Air Chief Marshal F H Major said in his opening address at the IAF's Commanders' Conference. Stress was laid on securing country's energy assets and protection of sea-lanes through which energy supplies are maintained. Apart from this flight safety, maintenance, administrative and logistical issues were also taken up for discussions. The Air Officers Commanding-in-Chief of IAF commands carried out a data based review. Discussions on Information warfare, placements of ex-air warriors and operational perspective on Garud force were also held.

Defence Cooperation

Fourth CISM Military World Games

The Fourth CISM Military World Games, were held in Hyderabad from 14 th to 21 st October. 5000 athletes from 101 countries participated. This was the biggest International multi-sport event of the year, the motto of which was 'Friendship through Sport'. Russia emerged on top of the Medal Tally with 42 Gold, 26 Silver and 28 Bronze medals. China, second with 36 Gold, 22 Silver and 13 Bronze while Germany came a distant third with 7 Gold, 10 Silver and 13 Bronze. India won 10 medals including 2 Gold, 1 Silver and 7 Bronze, its largest haul ever in two editions of the Games that it has participated so far. (MOD India Report).

Indo Russian Defence Dialogue

Seventh Meeting of the India- Russia Intergovernmental Commission for Military and Technical Cooperation was held with Indian Defence minister, A.K. Antony and Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Eduardovich Serdyukov at the head. Of the contentious issues in Indo Russian defence relationship, first was of lifecycle support to aircraft, borne out of worries on tardy supplies of spares for Russian-origin aircraft. Second, was a delay in retro-fitting and delivery of the aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov. The vessel was contracted in 2005 but the Russian shipyard has run into a cash crunch. Third, India asked for economic viability of "certain products" that were being negotiated or have been contracted. Joint development projects such as the Brahmos missile cannot be cost effective unless both countries place orders in sufficient numbers and find friendly third country markets to export them to. The final issue was that of an integrity pact for future and ongoing projects. Current defence contracts with Russia that will be valid for nearly a decade and a half total more than $14.5 billion but devoid of an integrity pact, future contracts may face procedural road blocks.

The interaction ended cordially with India and Russia signing a landmark Intergovernmental Agreement for joint development and joint production of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), on 18 October. India is looking for a next generation stealth fighter to match and exceed the capabilities of F 22 Raptor - already in service with the USA - and the JSF 3 - being jointly developed by the US and the UK. The PAK-FA is expected to have advanced stealth features, an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, thrust vectoring for increased manoeuvrability and a super cruise mode to fly at supersonic speed without using afterburners. The latest fighter in IAF`s inventory — the SU 30 MKI — lags far behind in stealth and beyond visual range fighting capabilities to the American F- 22. In January, Russia promised that a prototype of the PAK-FA would take its first flight in early 2009. However, the IAF believes it will take close to a decade before the first fighter would be ready for induction. Air Chief Marshal, F H Major confirmed, "The air staff requirements for the fifth generation fighters have been made. It will take five years for development and it will be 8-10 years before the first fighter takes to the skies," he said.

India and Russia are also working on an Intergovernmental Agreement on co-development and co-production of Multi-Role Transport Aircraft. Extension of Indo Russian cooperation is also seen in the field of training with more number of activities planned in the future. Talks with Russia have also started to extend the Military Cooperation Agreement beyond 2010. India has apparently succumbed to Russian demand for increasing annual cost escalation charge of contracted weapon systems to 5% from the present 2.55%. This is likely to lead to escalation of costs for the 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters which was purchased at an overall cost of over $8.5 billion. Apart from Sukhois, India is also on course to acquire 347 more T-90S main-battle tanks and 80 more Mi-17 medium-lift utility and assault helicopters from Russia which may also face the impact of cost escalation.

Comments

Indo Russian defence relationship is long standing. Development of a Fifth generation fighter will add to this base. However technologies that the Sukhoi design bureau has to offer at this stage is not very clear, hence there may be need to also incorporate other agencies/countries based on Russian acceptance particularly in the field of avionics and electronics such as Israel to ensure that a state of the art fighter aircraft is developed. The key issue of integrity pact remains unresolved as further movement in contracts is likely to take place only if Russia accepts the Integrity clause. The Indian Defence Minster was expected to be tough with the Russian defence ministry as the relations are particularly strained due to reluctance of the Russians to provide life cycle support to equipment provided by Moscow . While this is not an indication of cooling off relations, it will certainly add to the present jockeying for getting the best value in defence deals by both parties.

India France High Committee on Defence Cooperation

The 10th Meeting of the India-France High Committee on Defence Cooperation (HCC) was held in New Delhi on 29 October. Issues related to joint exercises and training, technology transfer and joint development of weapon systems were discussed during the two-day meeting. Three sub-committees, formed under the High Committee, also met on the sidelines. The Sub-Committee on Military Cooperation rolled out the plan for service to service cooperation activities for the next year. The Sub-Committee on Defence Industry Procurement and Research and Technology discussed matters of transfer of technology, joint development, production and research while Sub-Committee on Strategic Issues discussed matters of mutual strategic interest.

Expanding India - US Military Ties

Defence minister A K Antony, on 25 October gave "in principle" approval to the Indian Air Force to participate in a joint exercise with the United States Air Force. 'Red Flag' air combat exercise, held at the Nellis US Air Force base in Nevada is slated for mid-2008. The defence Minister highlighted, "We have to follow the trend all over the world. The trend all over the world is modernisation of equipment and also technology and better training. We are comparing what action other countries are undertaking with ours. We also want to follow the best practices. Military interaction with the US will continue." The latest combat exercise, 'Yudh Abhyas 07-02', is being held from 28 October to 17 November at Chaubattia in Uttarakhand. A battalion of the Gorkha regiment and an American rapid-deployment Stryker battalion is participating in counter-terrorism drills.

A senior Pentagon official has said that India is the "base of stability" in South Asia and "the United States does not want to get involved in any muddling in India's region" . Brigadier General, John A. Toolan, Jr, of the US Marine Corps, the principal director for South and South-east Asia at the Department of Defence, declared, "We want to work together, and that's at the heart of that stakeholder concept and that's at the heart of the whole relationship of the strategic partnership between India and the United States". (Daily Mirror Report).

Comments

Side effects of the stand off on the 123 Agreement are being felt in the defence cooperation field as well. A Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), Maritime Security Cooperation Framework (MSCF), Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and Container Security Initiative (CSI) are however pending issues in Indo US defence relationship. The Left parties` feel that these agreements are biased to favour the United States and will provide America access to Indian military installations and bases. Though defence officials claimed that the, "LSA is primarily meant for logistics support for joint exercises, peace-keeping and humanitarian operations between the two armed forces on reimbursable or equal-value exchange basis."

India Singapore Defence Dialogue

India and Singapore signed an agreement on a long-term arrangement for conducting joint training and exercises between the Indian Air Force and the Republic of Singapore Air Force on 9 October at the two-day 4th India-Singapore Defence Policy Dialogue. Both sides gave an update on India-Singapore defence relations and expressed the need to further intensify cooperation. Sub-groups reported progress made in respective fields including research & development. The regional security aspects, both from Indian and Singaporean perspectives, were discussed. (MOD India Report).

Comments. Singapore is building a long term relationship with India to facilitate defence training and other spheres. Given the size of the Island and large scale urbanization, training areas are obviously lacking. The availability of the same in India provides the Singapore forces a viable option for training close by. While there have been a series of exercises and training events carried out earlier, this process has since been formalized.

Sino Indian Army Training Postponed

The first ever joint India-China army exercise, scheduled for November, was delayed as no common dates or venue could be arrived at. A Chinese team was expected in New Delhi in September to finalize details of the exercise but called off its visit. The November exercise was to be an anti-terror drill involving about 150 troops of both sides and aimed at increasing, "confidence levels" between the two countries. Comments. The problem appears to be more political than military cooperation. Given some reports of Chinese objection of construction of bunkers in the - India- Bhutan and China junction as well as reports of encroachment in Bhutan- China border, there is an indication that Beijing may be linking these issues to delay cooperation which would otherwise appear contradictory.

Agni I - User Trials

The Strategic Forces Command successfully conducted user trial of Agni Missile A-I to complete its induction process into the service at Chandipur at Sea near Balasore in Orissa at 10.35 on 5 October. The performance parameters of the 700 km range missile were as expected and the desired objectives have been met. The short-range variant of India 's indigenously developed Agni series of ballistic missiles, Agni-I is capable of carrying 1,000 kg nuclear or conventional warhead. There were considerable improvements in re-entry technology and manoeuvrability since Agni-I's first test firing on January 25, 2002 . The second and third trials of the missile were conducted on January 9, 2003 and July 4, 2004 from the same launch site.

The Agni I, which can deliver a nuclear payload without being deployed at the border due to its range of over 700 km, was inducted into the Army in 2004 after over a decade of development trials by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO). This can be launched from both a road-based system and a broad gauge rail launcher system. The training trial comes months after a similar test was carried out on the short-range Prithvi missile in May to validate standard operating procedures of the Army`s special missile groups. The Army`s "334 missile group" currently operates Agni I missile while the Prithvi missile has been inducted into the "333 missile group." The Agni II intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), with a range of over 2000 km, has been inducted but its training trials are pending. The Agni III, with a range of over 3,500 km, needs to be tested "several more times" before induction. (Indian Express and other Media Reports).

Nirbhay Cruise Missile Development Programme

Indian defence scientists have taken up a new cruise missile development programme, Nirbhay (The Fearless). Nirbhay is being developed alongside Astra, an air-to-air missile designed to hit targets beyond visual range. Nirbhay will carry onboard a terrain-identification system that will map its course and relay the information to its guidance and propulsion systems. It will be a terrain-hugging missile capable of avoiding detection by ground-based radar. It would have a range of 1,000km. "We have Brahmos, which is a supersonic cruise missile and the need was felt for a subsonic cruise missile that will be capable of being launched from multiple platforms in land, air and sea," Chander said. A technology demonstrator is slotted for early 2009. Nirbhay would weigh around 1,000kg and travel at 0.7 mach (nearly 840kmph) and would be capable of delivering 24 different types of warheads. The Pakistani subsonic cruise missile Babur (also called Hatf VII) has ranges of 500 to 700km. The US`s Tomahawk has many versions, the latest of which has ranges in excess of 1,500km. (Daily Telegraph Report).

Comments

Missiles are the next dimension in warfare. Thus development of varied classes of missiles is significant. The need for a sub sonic and a super sonic cruise missile is sound. Simultaneously it is also believed that the BrahMos is developing a BrahMos II which is a hyper sonic missile which will evade detection. The Nirbhay will find competing with these varied grades of missiles difficult as the project has yet to go beyond the design board.

Tsunami Warning System

India deployed indigenously developed tsunami warning system on 15 October. The National Early Warning System for Tsunami and Storm Surges in the Indian Ocean has taken shape at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS). It will issue alerts for killer waves within 30 minutes of an earthquake. The Centre will generate and give timely advisories to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) for dissemination to the public for which a satellite-based virtual private network for disaster management support has been established. This network enables the early warning centre to disseminate warnings to the MHA, as well as to the state emergency operations centres. (Media Reports).

Land Forces Policy

Army Chief : First Media Interaction

The key focus of the Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor`s first media interaction was on addressing human resources challenges of the army in the diverse range of environments that it faces today. Modernisation and concomitant employment for counter militancy operations was also a challenge.The Chief indicated that restoration of the army image through strict action against corruption and disorder including human rights would be the focus. He indicated, " So far we have had 1303 cases of alleged human rights violations and only 53 cases were found genuine after scrutiny.". The army chief said that a manual of Ten Commandments had been handed out to formations on do's and don'ts while carrying out anti-insurgency operations. "There have been times when we have aborted a laid down cordon after field commanders felt that any fire-fight could lead to collateral damage," he said. Kapoor also said that his force would continue with its policy of 'iron fist and velvet gloves', saying that hardcore militants and mercenaries could not be equated with youth who had gone astray.

Human resources management would have to be a key focus of the armed forces in the years ahead. The situation is quite grim as a number of suicides and fratricide is impacting the army`s morale due to protracted deployments in low intensity operations. Greater interaction between officers and soldiers and other measures to relieve stress had to be evolved. On corruption at higher levels he indicated that, "We will take strict action against all those who are guilty," pointing out that Court Martial had recently handed out 'highest punishments'.

Army of the Future : A Lean, Mean Military Power

Speaking at the HT Leadership Summit, the former Army Chief, General JJ Singh indicated that armed forces have held a pivotal position amongst various instruments available to the country, in addressing all facets which impact on security of the nation. "Undoubtedly, this responsibility and role will continue to be assigned to them in the coming years and decades. Therefore, they have to remain `ready and relevant` to meet these challenges. The Indian armed forces are in the process of modernization and capability building. They are also evolving new doctrines and validating them, keeping in mind the security challenges of the future and the revolution in military affairs, so that we transform into a lean, mean and integrated war-winning team".

The primary and fundamental role of the armed forces was denoted as defence against external threats. The secondary roles was aid civil authorities and restore law and order when requisitioned by the government, and to provide relief and rescue in the event of natural and manmade disasters or similar challenges. Additionally, preparing the armed forces for various contingency tasks which may arise in the future in keeping with the growing stature and responsibilities of the nation in a globalizing world was a new and challenging role which will determine the size and shape of the military and the additional capabilities that would need to be built.

The other major determinants for transformation were technological and budgetary factors, as well as defence policy and military doctrine. Although an all-out conventional war is unlikely in the Indian context, preparing to fight in a full spectrum of conflict with a nuclear backdrop, and counter asymmetric warfare by state and non-state actors through a tri-service approach, an integrated force structure and capability to operate jointly in land, air and sea, and to utilize space and cyber space optimally was denoted as the way ahead. Strategic capability should ensure that the shortfall in conventional doctrine or capabilities will be reduced thereby maintaining strategic autonomy.

Qualitatively, emphasis will be on strategic reach and the ability to ensure secure sea lanes of communication which is seen to be facilitated by force multipliers based on high technology, precision guided munitions and fire power. The information infrastructure should enable dynamic and multidimensional employment of widely dispersed joint forces; apply decisive pressure upon the enemy`s centre of gravity, thereby placing the adversary in a continuous loop of disadvantages. For this purpose lean, air-mobile units and formations, enhancing amphibious, Special Forces and strategic or tactical airlift capability, and enhancing capabilities in the information and technological realm would be necessary. Threat from asymmetric warfare such as proxy wars, insurgencies, and terrorism and piracy on the high seas by non-state actors would have to be countered effectively.

A capability to participate in combined operations with friendly armed forces is essential. Information dominance would also be relevant and could evolve as a new principle of warfare. Enhanced C4I2SR (command, control, communication, computers, information, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) capability will facilitate conduct of military operations simultaneously over several theatres.

On the other hand strategic use of information warfare to destroy or incapacitate an adversary`s capability for effective war-fighting by targeting his planning, command and control apparatus will be another component of military strategy. Multi-dimensional protection will be required to enable forces to maintain freedom of action. Armed forces will also require protection against nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.

All this implies the need to have a better educated manpower base for optimum exploitation of modern weapon systems. (HT Report from the Leadership Summit).

Army Aviation Corps in Expansion Mode

The Army Aviation Corps (AAC) is in an expansion mode with 197 light helicopters being inducted to replace the ageing Cheetah and Chetak fleets. The Army has projected "concrete" requirements for the 11th (2007-2012), 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans. The AAC will have a mix of reconnaissance, utility, tactical battle-support, armed and attack helicopters as well as tactical airlift fixed-wing aircraft. With the aim of full control over tactical assets in the battle zone the army plans to have aviation brigades "integral" to its six regional commands, with at least a squadron of utility helicopters with each of the 13 corps. The three "strike" corps, the principle offensive formations of Army with HQs at Mathura (1 Corps), Ambala (2 Corps) and Bhopal (21), will have two squadrons of attack helicopters, one utility helicopter squadron and two reconnaissance and observation squadrons.

The deal with Europe's aerospace and defence major, EADS for purchase of 197 'Fennec' helicopters is in the pipeline. An agreement for supply of the `AS 550 Fennec` helicopters for Indian Navy may follow, as the latter has expressed interest in acquiring these, officials of the company said here. "We are in final phase of having a deal to supply 197 (Fennec) light helicopters for the Indian Army. The contract is expected to be signed by the end of the year." The Fennec helicopter holds a record in flying in mountainous regions and was the only of its kind to successfully land on top of Mount Everest recently, EADS officials said. The helicopters are capable of day and night military operations and cover a mission spectrum including attack, training, cargo, transport and medical evacuation. The Army Aviation Corps has been seeking new helicopters to ferry loads of up to 75 kgs to troops based at high altitudes in Siachen and other mountain peaks in Jammu and Kashmir. (http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/army/India_to_buy_197_helicopters110013668.php).

67 of these helicopters will be bought off-the-shelf, while rest will be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd under transfer of technology. The Army is also looking for around 80 medium-lift utility helicopters like Russian Mi-17V-5s, which can react and transport 20-25 fully-equipped soldiers to the combat zone. Progressive induction of indigenously manufactured 'Dhruv' advanced light helicopters is planned. The AAC has three Dhruv squadrons, with three more planned for induction in the 11th Plan and the seventh one in the 12th Plan. The AAC is also gearing up to induct "armed" Dhruvs, with "weaponisation" of these helicopters already underway and the delivery target being set for 2009-2010. The aim is to induct six such squadrons for anti-tank and close air support operations. Full-fledged "attack" helicopters, in turn, are planned for the 12th Plan to provide "dedicated support" to mechanized forces with tanks and infantry combat vehicles. (Times of India Report).

Comments. The Indian Army is lacking in aviation resources as well as is way behind in attack helicopter integration in the land battle primarily due to paucity of resources. This will be overcome with the new buys in the offing. The ongoing controversy raised by Bell Helicopters over losing out to EADS has probably delayed formal signing of contracts which is delaying the whole process. However there is also a need to ensure that arm aviation evolves organizationally and doctrinally into not just a support but a manoeuvre arm.

Aero Space Power And Capability Building

Indian Air Force (IAF) : The Challenges Ahead

Blue Print for India `s Aero Space Industry

The Chief of Air Staff highlighted the differential in capability between developed and developing nations which will remain, prompting second-tier nations to indigenise. Developing aerospace technology is cost prohibitive and takes generations hence transfer of technology is the easier option for developing countries. Economies of scale are therefore essential for financial viability of aerospace projects, requiring external markets. The IAF would be inducting the MMRCA and the FGFA by 2020 which were expected to last till 2060. By then there could be a paradigm shift in air power from unmanned flight, to missiles; or `air` becoming more of `space` as per the Air Chief.

Technology advances are revolutionary, the global environment also changes radically and leading nations have more say in the direction of technology development.

Design and development and manufacture will therefore remain important, for it is only through experience that new ideas and technologies appear that could radically alter the nature of warfare. The various elements for development of Aerospace power were indicated as, "considerable funding, a very high technology base, very competent and motivated people, well-endowed R&D infrastructure, efficient industry with deep pockets and an operational feedback". India has to overcome the `technology gap` by developing core core-competencies in metallurgy, avionics and simulation.

The `Offsets Policy`, combined with anticipated growth in Indian aerospace power, makes India a very valuable customer. This potential needs to be leveraged to advantage. Finally the need may be to develop multiple partnerships that bring together all stake-holders. But in multi-horse chariots, `programme management` and accountability is a huge challenge. Each project must be semi-autonomous and one team. But since players are many, the user must always be the Captain.

A technological discussion invariably veers around human resource development. Quality people are the most essential energisers. All stake-holders must have a deep, comprehensive, multi-disciplinary understanding. (MOD India Press Release).

Comments

The Air Chief has very effectively summed up the needs of India`s evolving aero space power. As a developing country with limited budget but with expanding responsibilities, balancing needs with resources is an extremely challenging prospect. Technology absorption and project management which have been key weaknesses in the Indian armed forces over the years only add to difficulties. There is a need for vision and implementation both of which are needed at this critical juncture of inflexion of India`s military power.

Tejas LCA Fires - Close Combat Missile

The Light Combat Aircraft "Tejas" successfully test fired the Close Combat Missile R-73 on 25 October at the air to air range off Goa coast marking beginning of weaponisation, which is the focus of the current initial operational clearance (IOC) phase of the program. The main objectives of test firing were to validate:

• Safe separation of the missile from the parent aircraft.
• Effect of missile plume on engine air-intake
• Functionality of store management system (SMS) including safety interlocks
• Effect of missile plume on composites structures
• Handling quality assessment during missile launch

The flight was done on Tejas prototype vehicle PV-1, piloted by the Chief Test Pilot of the National Flight Test Centre ADA, Gp Capt. N. Harish. The test firing was done at 7 km altitude and 0.6 Mach. The flight test was conducted from the mobile telemetry vehicle where all the aircraft, systems and weapon data were closely monitored. Quick analysis of the data revealed that it was a `text book` launch where the systems performance matched the predictions well. (MOD India Press Release).

Comments

The firing of the missile by the LCA is no doubt a very key event in technology development. However the project is way behind schedule and the next steps may have to be accelerated to ensure that the LCA meets the light fighter requirements of the IAF.

Hawks To be Inducted Mid November

The first two 'Hawk' AJTs from UK are slated to arrive at the Bidar airbase in Karnataka in mid-November. Under the Rs 8,000 Crore AJT project sealed in March 2004, IAF will induct 66 Hawks — 24 in a 'flyaway condition' from BAE Systems, while the rest will be manufactured indigenously — in a phased manner. As part of the project, 75 IAF pilots are also being trained at RAF Valley in UK in batches. IAF, on its part, has earmarked Bidar as the hub for its entire future fighter training in the country, and is gradually disbanding MiG-21 training establishments at Tezpur, Bhuj, Jamnagar and Nalia.

India : Multiple Terror and Law and Order Challenges Continue

Key Trends

• Gujjar agitation (2 to 9 October) reactivated but largely peaceful. Situation however needs careful monitoring in vulnerable areas particularly those with sizeable Gujjar and Meena population in Rajasthan, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh on 3 November.
• Displacement of agrarian populace due to SEZs, large projects and unemployment caused by establishment of large scale retail stores were a major cause of agitations. Nandigram (28 October, Casualties 3), Paradip (POSCO) (13 and 14 Oct) saw sporadic violence including kidnapping of officials of the company (13/14 October), Mumbai ( 10 October) and Delhi ( 29 October) bore brunt of agitations.
• Politics has polarized project implementation and land acquisition which will face challenges in the days ahead.
• Terror strikes in Ludhiana (14 October, Casualties 7) and Ajmer (11 October, Casualties, 3) renews fears of activation of terrorism in Punjab, expansion of network in Rajasthan. Investigations reveal linkages between blasts in Ajmer and Hyderabad. Network spread to Jharkhand and Indore.
• Trend of lynching and vigilante justice by mobs particularly noticeable in Bihar and Jharkhand. 9 incidents of vigilante justice occurred during month. (4,5,6,7,9,19,20,21,25 Oct).
• Railway security in Bihar and Jharkhand major concern in the days ahead. 185 vulnerable stations identified in India. Disruption of railways due to bandhs on three occasions. (6, 8, 30 Oct).
• Second meeting of Joint Anti-Terror Meeting (JATM) held in New Delhi, greater transparency evident and some progress anticipated in the future.
• SAARC interior ministers and officials meet successfully concluded in Delhi. Greater resolve by all nations to combat threat of terrorism and law and order jointly was perceptible, however it will take three to five years for implementing joint measures for controls on the ground.
• SEBI denies terror funds entering markets, but with rapid rise of Sensex to 20,000 points, use of financial channels as stock markets by terrorist organizations cannot be ruled out. FIU in annual report highlights number of seepages in the banking sector.

Regional Approach to Counter Terrorism 

Terrorism in South Asia is interlinked, hence a regional approach has to be adopted for control. While various regional and bilateral treaties for cooperation on terrorism and crime do exist, these have not been operationalised as neighbours have been routinely utilizing terrorist groups for conduct of proxy war. A significant shift was however seen during the month with greater willingness in SAARC countries for creating mechanisms for sharing information. Extensive deliberations were held between ministerial and secretary level officials of the home ministries of SAARC countries on 25 October. Regular exchange of information to combat terrorism and a convention for mutual legal assistance in criminal matters was planned. All eight member countries, including new entrant Afghanistan, decided to hold a meeting of police chiefs and intelligence officials twice every year to facilitate such exchanges instead of annually as at present. Pakistan has offered to host the next meeting in Islamabad in February 2008. Cross-border crimes, like drug and human trafficking, money laundering and arms smuggling besides terrorism, will receive focus. Better electronic networking among the eight-member grouping was also considered during the conference. A proposal for creation of a database for coordinated action against terrorism, drug trafficking, cyber crimes and financial frauds which was under consideration also needs to be implemented.

The Indo Pakistan Joint Anti-Terror panel also met during the month on 22 nd October. As per the joint release issued, "Both sides shared new information on terrorist incidents including those which have occurred since the last meeting. They agreed to continue to work to identify measures, exchange specific information and assist in investigations". (MEA India Web Release). Media reports indicated that India sought Pakistan 's cooperation in tracking down suspects in bomb blasts in Hyderabad , Ajmer and Ludhiana . Evidence of cross-border linkages were also provided. New Delhi also sought to know what action Islamabad had taken on information provided about persons believed to be behind the cross-border Samjhauta Express blasts and other terror attacks in India over the last two years. It has also been indicated that while Pakistan had rebuffed Indian suggestions of involvement of groups operating in Kashmir operating from its soil during the last meeting in March 2007, this time they accepted the evidence.

Comments

The resolution of SAARC Home Ministers to adopt a joint approach to fight terrorism is a small step in reducing asymmetric threats in the Sub Continent. Terrorism has consumed over 5000 lives in the entire South Asian region less Afghanistan in 2007 so far with over 10,000 lives being lost if Afghanistan is also included. However it is evident that while there is better resolve, conversion of the same into actionable inputs to control the menace on the ground will be marred with difficulties. The process of JATM and CBMs between India and Pakistan has been held hostage to political uncertainty and turmoil in both the countries. Continuance of CBMs as a matter of course till political situation stabilizes should be considered as a gain.

Terror Blasts Ajmer and Ludhiana

A blast shook the Sufi shrine of Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti at Ajmer on 11 October at 6:20 pm, leaving two dead and eleven injured. The blast material was placed inside a tiffin box. The crude bomb, planted near a tree at Aasthan-e-Noor, went off a minute after the fasting period ended, he said. Investigators found SIM card in the mobile used to trigger the explosion. This was in the same name Babu Lal Yadav of Noida as that used in Mecca Masjid blasts in Hyderabad in May 2007. The explosive material Tri-Nitro-Toluene (TNT) with a little mix of RDX, had been connected to the alarm of the mobile phone to trigger the blast. Karachi-based Shahid Bilal, who heads Bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islami was allegedly the master mind of the Ajmer blast. (Indian Express Report).

Terror struck Ludhiana on 14 October when at least seven people, including an 11-year-old boy, were killed and over 30 others injured after two consecutive powerful blasts rocked Shingar cinema hall. The bomb blast was of high intensity with the possibility of use of deadly RDX not ruled out. It is after a long interval that Punjab which was rocked by violence in the 1980`s has witnessed a bomb explosion. The last one occurred on October 26, 2000, on the Bhathinda-Rewari passenger train in which two persons were killed and 34 injured. Prior to that, there was an explosion in Sriganganar-Ambala Passenger on July 8, 1997, train near Khanna in which 33 people were killed and 67 injured.

NSA`s Appreciation of Terror Threat

Speaking to The Indian Express, National Security Advisor, Mr M K Narayanan placed the terror threat in the country in perspective indicating that, "There has been a manifest attempt in Pakistan to build up a radical Sikh environment. Sporadic blasts were creating sensation, but the desired effect of sustained tension was not working. We had intelligence about four to six months back that a lot of effort was going into attempts to foment militancy. We have tracked intelligence information, we have studied the way such attacks take place and we can read a pattern. We have also seen signs of resuscitation of militant groups in Canada , US and Germany ." He also indicated that to increase the level of human grief so as to instigate adverse reaction, terrorist groups were likely to undertake a major strike in the days ahead. To avoid profiling minority communities he suggested methods such as, "social network investigation, spectrum analysis or other sophisticated methodology. We are making efforts to refine techniques and we hope we can reduce random arrests. We are very hopeful of limiting perceptions of profiling to the extent possible.". (Indian Express and Media Reports).

The apprehensions of a change in strategy were also reflected in a Daily News (Pakistan) report which claimed that Indian Intelligence Bureau submitted a report to the Home Ministry indicating a change in Kashmir strategy adopted by Pakistan with focus of violence shifting from Kashmir to other parts of India, building political support within Jammu and Kashmir, mploying alternative infiltration routes from neighbouring countries and recruiting Indians for terrorist activities from the Middle East. The aim was to ensure deniability, conceal infrastructure, dispersion of support mechanisms and creation of separate modules said the report. Islamabad is also said to be relocating terror camps and expanding social base of militants. (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\10\31\story_31-10-2007_pg7_3)

Comments

The first stage of strategy of denial by Pakistan was diversion of terrorist groups to Bangladesh . The HUJI had thus assumed prominence in terror attacks in the country. Now that the HUJI has been exposed, it is important that the same may be diverted to other areas. There does appear to be some grounds thus to believe that Pakistan may be following a strategy of diversion of attention from its direct involvement in terrorist actions in India. Thus drawing on Indians based in Middle East and uniting political support may be some of the essential features of the same.