Sep 10, 2009

KSanthanam, an influential Director in the DRDO during the 1998 nuclear testsite preparations raised a storm during the month indicating that the yield of India’sthermonuclear explosion or hydrogen bomb was actually much below expectationsand the tests were a fizzle, implying it failed to meet the desired yield.  Indiaconducted five nuclear tests at the Pokhran test range. Three of them wereconducted on May 11 and two on May 13,1998 to include a 15 kiloton fission device, a 45 kilotonthermonuclear device (hydrogen bomb) and three sub-kiloton devices. The testwas said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but western experts said it was notmore than 20 KT and Dr Santhanam popularly known as Santy seemed to supportthis view.

            The Defence Ministry rejected Mr KSanthanam’s assertion that the 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests were not fullysuccessful, adding that Indiahas a meaningful number of nuclear weapons and an effective delivery system togo with it. The Prime Minister has also rebutted this claim but this wasanticipated as it would have raised considerable doubts about the country’sstrategic capabilities. Former Navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta, then chairmanof the chiefs of staff committee was quoted by the Times of India as saying,India had "a credible minimum nuclear deterrent'' in line with its no-firstuse (NFU) policy. "We are a nation which maintains a credibledeterrent...more than enough to deter anybody,'' said Admiral Mehta. "Asfar as we are concerned, scientists have given us a certain capability which isenough to provide requisite deterrence...the deterrent is tried andtested.''  [Times of IndiaReport by Rajat Pandit 28 August 2009]

            The Indian defence nuclear communityis now divided over the yield and veracity of the nuclear tests conducted in1998 in respect of the hydrogen bomb. This was said to be of lower yield thanassessed and therefore not meeting the countries strategic requirements. Thisassertion could be seen to considerably weaken the country nuclear deterrent.

            The second aspect of this issue isrelated to the CTBT and FMCT dialogues. In case the test of the Hydrogen bombhas not been successful, another test would be required to ensure high degreeof assurance. This would also imply that Indiapossibly cannot commit itself to the CTBT an agenda which is close to USPresident Obama’s charter. Thus this may become a spanner in Indo US relationsin the years ahead.

Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System

            The Indian Space ResearchOrganisation (ISRO) is developing a constellation of seven satellites for aproposed navigation system for the security forces. ISRO chief G. Madhavan Nairsaid the Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System (IRNSS) was beingdeveloped, “The proposed system would consist of a constellation of sevensatellites and a ground support segment,” with three satellites in thegeostationary orbit and four near the geostationary orbit. “Such an arrangementwould mean all seven satellites would have continuous radio visibility with theIndian control stations. The satellite payloads will consist of atomic clocksand electronic equipment to generate the navigational signals,” he said.     

“Thesystem is intended to provide an absolute position accuracy of more than 20meters throughout Indiaand within a region extending approximately 2,000 km around it,” Nairexplained. The system of satellites would provide navigational information andwould be indigenous. This would certainly benefit the country in more respectsthan that of locating the infiltrators. This would provide positional accuracyand therefore enable Indian navigators to home on to indigenous systems andthus ensure that there are no interruptions or false signals which is said tobe the bane of other related systems as the GPS which can be manipulated by theservice provider to advantage. However fielding and working of such a systemindependently for a single or a small group of countries is likely to beextremely costly.

Sub Conventional Warfare – TheTechnology Paradigm

            The Minister of State for DefenceDr. MM Pallam Raju inaugurating a two-day seminar on ‘Emerging Technologies forSub-Conventional Conflict and Homeland Security’, organised by the CLAWS andCII highlighted the challenges of fighting militancy and terrorism and needs oftechnology to face the same.

“Whilewe face threats to internal security from abroad, we also are confronted withmilitant activities in 160 districts across the eastern and southern parts ofthe country”, said the Minister. “Such threats discourage investment, industryand employment, leading to low level of human development indicators and are arisk for investors and consumers alike. In order to raise the economic growthof these sections of our country, we must provide peace and mental security toinvestors so that they are confident about bringing in much-needed capital.Only when adequate comfort is provided to investors can we bring aboutdevelopment in these areas and alleviate poverty. Thus internal security is amatter of high priority for us”, he added.

            The entire endeavour requires a newinfrastructure of defence equipment and systems involving substantialexpenditures. An estimate by Frost and Sullivan places India’sproposed expenditure on just the homeland security aspect at close to $10billion by 2016. This would include outlays on protecting our borders, as wellas securing critical infrastructure such as airports; mass transport, seaborders, etc said the Minister.

            The terrorists, militants andinsurgents are acquiring advanced weapons and communication equipment. Theirmethods of warfare are becoming more sophisticated, more complex and moresystematically planned. Their objectives are becoming more ambitious, with theintention of inflicting maximum damage. Therefore, the task ahead isformidable.            Mines of increasedsophistication and decreased detectability, and precision-guided munitions arealready much in use at the sub-conventional levels of warfare. In the future,we may even see insurgents armed with nuclear devices or biological andchemical weapons, capable of massive destruction in localized areas. Theincreased range and lethality of weapons as well as changed tactics and smallfocused insurgent missions will need strategic response from our defence andparamilitary forces.

            In order to counter the growingthreat, Indianeeds to work on a number of fronts simultaneously. Leveraging emergingtechnologies is one of the critical aspects in this area. The world has maderapid strides in technology development in conducting warfare as well as incommunications and transport. Indiahas evident capacities in information technology and engineering design in theprivate sector, through which it has been able to successfully capture thespace of outsourcing and software services.

            We must ensure that each one of oursoldiers at the sub-conventional level can match the capacities of theopponents. For example, there is need to further equip our forces with nightvision, light and lethal weapons, appropriate clothing and other equipment. Ourcommunications strategies must encompass transmission of data, video and audioin real time. Sufficient attention to range, encryption, and protection againstcounter attacks must be given said Mr Raju.

            There are significant opportunitiesfor private industry to partner in the homeland security and sub conventionalwarfare space. Paramilitary forces under the Ministry of Home Affairs includethe Border Security Force, CISF, Indian Home Guards, CRPF, Railway ProtectionForce and others. The equipment and training of all these must be upgraded andmodernized continuously in order to have an effective counter-insurgencyinternal security force said the Minister. [MOD India press release].