Apr 29, 2008

Sino Russian Defence Relationship : Undergoing Transformation?

The main stay of People Liberation Army modernization has been supply of Russian equipment. Thus there has been a steady flow of Russian aircraft, frigates, submarines and even hovercraft to Beijing over the years. A recent report in the Ria Novosti however indicated that this special relationship was undergoing a change despite the largely successful exercise Peace Mission 2007 involving Russian and Chinese troops along with other Central Asian militaries. For the first time Moscow is showing signs of concern over supply of high technology military equipment to China. Perhaps Russia has realized that Chinese capability to absorb and reverse engineer technology has increased exponentially. Thus Beijing would be able to produce excellent copies of Russian ships and submarines in the years to come. China`s growing economic power also implies that with a modern military, Moscow will not be able to coerce Beijing with its superior weaponry and powerful military.

The first signs of a slow down in relationship are as per Ria Novosti are the lack of meetings of Russian and Chinese intergovernmental commission for the last two years whereas it was an annual or even a biannual feature previously. There are also no major Chinese contracts pending with the Russian defence industry and Russian arms exporters do not expect any increase in sales volumes to China which had reached $6.5 billion.

The latest equipment delivered to China by Russia are four Project 956-E Sovremenny-class destroyers featuring 3M-80E Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn) supersonic anti-ship missiles, two Project 877-EKM Varshavyanka (Kilo)-class diesel-electric attack and two Project 636 Amur (improved Kilo)-class submarines with Club-C anti-ship missile systems built at the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg. Sukhoi Su-27MKK fighter assembly kits, as well as AL-31F engines and avionics have also been delivered, to an aircraft plant in Shengyang. The contracts pertaining to S-300PMU and Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems have also been fulfilled.

What is critical however is the Ilyushin Il-76MD, strategic lift aircraft which would have added to Chinese rapid reaction capability has not been supplied so far as the Chkalov Aircraft Production Plant in Tashkent, Uzbekistan could not deliver the planes. Russian efforts to shift this production to Ulyanovsk Aircraft Plant in the Volga region have also not succeeded.

The report also goes on to state that the General Armaments Department of the People's Liberation Army is keen to buy large batches of Russian-made Shmel (Bumblebee) rocket infantry flame-throwers, 120mm Nona-SVK and Vena self-propelled guns, 152mm Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, 300mm Smerch (Tornado) multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRSs), T-90S main battle tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-80 armoured personnel carriers (APCs), Mil Mi-28N Havoc and Kamov Ka-50 Hokum "Black Shark" attack helicopters, various types of three-dimensional radars, naval Shtil-1 R-29RM (SS-N-23) surface-to-air missiles on vertical launchers, as well as electronic counter-measures (ECM) systems, Ka-27 and Helix Ka-28 ship-borne helicopters, know-how for manufacturing fourth-generation and fifth-generation aircraft engines, highly alloyed steels and other materials. This indeed is a long list of varied equipment which would greatly increase the mobility, fire power and surface as well as air forces capability of the PLA in the years to come.

This would be a sizeable order for the Russian arms industry. However the Chinese are increasingly demanding production licenses and more advanced weaponry with joint production capability which the Russians have been reluctant to provide recently. Russian experience with RD 93 aircraft engines which were transferred by China to Pakistan to be installed in the JF 17 fighter could have dissuaded Moscow from a across the board military production support to Beijing.

Despite its many advances in indigenisation, China is faced with problems of full scale production of high grade weapons and systems. Metallurgy is one of the key problems faced by Beijing. Reports after Peace Mission 2007 indicate that the suspension of the Chinese APCs and 100 mm self propelled guns failed in the rugged terrain at the Russian 34 th Motorized Rifle Divisions training facility near Chebarkul in the Urals. Metal fatigue is reportedly identified as a major cause in the preliminary inquiries.

There is no doubt that both Russia and China need to go ahead with defence equipment relationship. The issue is how this can be established equitably. Both sides appear to be attempting a hard bargain. Beijing is trying to reduce orders to Moscow and is also looking towards other suppliers including European defence agencies though European Union sanctions prevents these nations from supplying weapons to Beijing. With all European nations less UK facing falling sales of military equipment, a review of EU policy may come about, if Beijing tries hard to convince them that Tiananmen square is way behind and the new image of China is that of Olympics 2008. Greater engagement could well induce Russia to offer favourable terms in the future.

India is also faced with more aggressive pricing policy by Moscow, but is relatively comfortably placed due to the well entrenched defence relationship between the two countries. Thus while there may be some review of prices, the flow of Russian equipment along with production licenses and technology transfers is likely to continue apace. Russia is also not worried about India`s increased regional clout as there is no clash of interests between the two countries.

PLA Buglers: Information Warriors on the Front Line

One of the most interesting news about the People`s Liberation Army (PLA) flashed recently by Xinhua is return of buglers in the PLA. Quoting, Sgt. Zhang Gaosen, of the Jinan Military Area Command the report stated that, "Being a bugler was not a promising career in the past," but things are changing and buglers are much in demand he claimed. Some may believe that buglers may be, "on call" for the Beijing Olympics less than a year away. However there are deeper operational reasons for the PLA reviving the art of bugling.

In the years gone by, buglers would rouse an army to battle or simply soldiers from their sleep at the break of dawn. Identification of a bugle call was one of the first lessons in training young recruits for unless one recognized the call correctly one could be missing out on an important routine or order of the day. The bugle call of Retreat at the end of the day was especially significant as it not just signified preparations for the night but also was a tribute to the innumerable martyrs who had laid down their lives for the country.

But over the years as alarm calls, sirens, hooters and networked wireless megaphones have proliferated buglers have taken a back seat in the armed forces. However the threat of jamming of communications in the thick of a modern battle; electronic and information warfare has led to increase in interest in bugling in the Chinese armed forces.

Such fall back on old systems to beat modern technology has many precedents. As the world was moving on to transistorized communications, some observers were surprised to find that the then Soviet Army persisted with valve radios on their critical communication equipment. Obviously the Soviets were protecting themselves from the Electro Magnetic Pulse that would have neutralized transistors but not the valves. The Chinese seem to drawing similar lessons based on a much more antiquated yet reliable tradition of armies of the World, bugling to beat electronic warfare.

The PLA is no novice to organizational innovation. It has the unique ability of maximizing its strengths. Thus it was People`s War when Mao`s Army lacked big guns, or human wave attacks in Korea or an anti satellite strike in 2007. Information warfare has been the PLA`s key focus over the years. In the 1990`s, two Chinese Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui of the PLA Air Force Political Department published a seminal work, "Unrestricted Warfare" which revealed the PLA`s thinking on new methods and techniques for gaining political advantage against possible adversaries. Information warfare was a key concept propagated then.

Today PLA is reportedly having full scale information warfare capability with an offensive and defensive component. Recent reports in the media indicate that possibly one or many cyber attacks were carried out by the Chinese military on US military`s computer system in June this year. US officials claim that these have been by the People`s Liberation Army (PLA). One such attack even led to shutting down of computers in the offices of Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary. While official comments were guarded, as it is always difficult to trace out such attacks and a number of states as well as non state entities are reported to be carrying out such attempts regularly, yet alarm bells are already ringing in information security circles across the globe.

Another report speaks of hacking by Chinese into German government systems including computer networks at Chancellor Merkel`s office. This issue was reportedly raised during the meet between Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Beijing recently. One would have imagined that the networks of the German Chancellor and Secretary Gates would be virtually penetrable. Yet the all pervasiveness of information warfare perhaps provides opportunities for penetrating even such highly secure systems. So what do we do with Chinese buglers when they give their calls to the PLA soldiers, "counter bugler warfare", may increasingly engage the hyper active security specialists across the globe.

Mahan, Malabar and China

China `s quest for great nationhood passes through the waters of the Indian Ocean . Chinese strategists have perhaps concluded that the rise of great nations is determined by the size of their navies. As China seeks to rise to greater glories, a Navy is assuming increasing importance for Beijing . Moreover an economy which is dependent on inward flow of raw materials including oil and gas and the outward transportation of goods by sea cannot neglect the oceans. China `s wealth is concentrated on the Eastern coast, thus it has to ensure that this is protected. For this purpose, there is no option but to develop a strong Navy. Chinese main tactical concerns are denial of access to the coastal areas, thus the anti access strategy propagated by the PLA.

A study of Mahan and his naval strategy is also engaging many commanders of the Chinese Navy. For like Mahan`s initial doubts of employment of an emergent US Navy, PLAN the Chinese Navy has to figure out what to do with a naval muscle that is growing each day. For China the problems are even more daunting than America of the 19 th Century. For the United States was not faced with a major challenger in the seas till post Meiji Japan emerged on the Pacific horizon. While Britain had a strong navy it was also a very staunch ally. China is facing competition in the oceans from many powers with long traditions of naval warfare.

Despite extensive investment of resources, both manpower and capital, the Chinese are not likely to be able to match the US Navy in the next 50 years or more. Lack of naval tradition will restrict Chinese plans in the future. Thus China is building an asymmetric naval capability with large sized submarine fleet. Simultaneously rumours of Chinese building an air craft carrier persist, but that is a long way off. Unlike other regional countries including Japan and India and also Thailand, China has no experience and expertise in employment or manning an air craft carrier. While the Chinese are fast learners, their ability to assimilate the complex operations involved in running an aircraft carrier may be constrained by steepness of the learning curve.

The United States is not the only ocean faring worry for the Chinese, Japan is just across the board and represents a major traditional threat. The Japanese are increasingly assertive in extending the reach of the maritime self defence forces in the Pacific as well as the Indian Ocean. Japan is providing refuelling facilities to all US ships in the area, a consequence of which is growing tension between the ruling and opposition parties in the country and which is said to have partially contributed to the resignation of Prime Minister Abe. Of course the Chinese may have been pleased with this event, though the stoicism bred by Confucius will prevent them to comment on what is, "strictly an internal matter of a friendly neighbour". No doubt there would be some glee over the frailties of democratic systems.

But China`s major maritime worry is India. India not only has a strong Navy but also occupies a central position astride the Indian Ocean. This enables the Indian Navy to dominate the waters to the great detriment of PLAN, so feels Beijing. However the final concern emerges when all the three navies, Indian, Japan and the United States conduct an exercise in the Bay of Bengal practicing what could only be seen as joint manoeuvres, surely not anti terrorism exercises professed by exercise planners and spin masters.

Thus the Chinese attempting to understand naval stratagems espoused by Mahan are confronted with the problem of the Malabar manoeuvres in their prime area of interest, through which all of China`s oil passes, mouth of the Malacca straits. Here the Chinese see not one, not two but three potential competitors disrupting their vital life lines, in the same way that Mahan propounded in his treatise. Now we know why the Chinese protested over Malabar, its Mahan`s teachings, for if the alliance of nations grows, China`s so called string of pearls in the Indian Ocean may prove inadequate to protect Beijing`s interests.

(SAST October 2007).

Space: China `s New Frontier

Space is China`s new frontier. Beijing recognizes that global dominance in the decades ahead cannot come about unless it can attain predominance in one of the three mediums in which all human activity is conducted, land, sea and aero space. While China has traditionally been a continental power, it has increased its presence in the oceans with a fillip to shipping both civil and military. However the Chinese probably recognize that they would not be able to attain dominance of the seas due to factors as geography as well as history and tradition. The aero space medium is one arena where Beijing seems confident of attaining control over its trans terrestrial area of influence particularly in the space domain.

China is leveraging the relatively limited number of players operating in space to advantage by developing capabilities which may some day even challenge the United States, despite US policy of retaining primacy in this sphere. The Anti Satellite Test conducted by China on 11 January this year is just one indication of Beijing`s intent. Curiously China first acknowledged having conducted ASAT only on 23 January a full 12 days later allowing others to debate the issue so that an appropriate response could be prepared. This suitable response was as expected. The Chinese spokesman stated that the ASAT was not aimed at any one. But the ASAT is just a tip of the, "space berg" as China has prepared a well drafted plan for achieving space dominance.

China's State Council recently approved the country's 11th five-year plan on space development covering the period from 2006 - 2010 with manned space flight, lunar exploration, new launch vehicles and high-resolution earth observation being areas of priority. China will develop nearly 100 spacecrafts during this period. China`s focus in space is on three primary areas where use of the medium will give Beijing an overwhelming advantage; these are satellite navigation systems, remote sensing and space communications. The interlinking of these technologies is designed to achieve what the Chinese are now calling a spatial information super highway. This will include a network of communication and broadcasting, earth resource, meteorological, navigation, scientific experiment satellites, and so on.

China hopes to involve the private sector to sell these technologies in a big way and develop the space service sector. That these are dual use technologies, providing the Chinese considerable leverage economically as well as militarily is well known. Chinese forays into space are not just restricted to common user technologies but will also extend to research in green field areas of black hole physics and hard X-rays. For this purpose a recoverable satellite, Shijian-10 is being launched and a telescope established. The key areas in advanced space research have been identified as, space astronomy and solar physics, space physics and solar system exploration, and, microgravity science and space life science. For satellite launch a new generation of rocket, "Long March V" is being developed in seven to eight years which would be used to launch a space station. China is increasingly focusing on developing satellites in `generations` thereby providing a benchmark to progress.

Moreover satellites are going to be purpose oriented. Some will provide meteorological and disaster monitoring as well as facilitate emergency response. Reports last year indicated that the Chinese have envisaged a satellite network for monitoring and response for disasters. Satellites as the Marine 2 are under development for surveys of winds and waves, gravitational field in the oceans, circulation and other marine information. "Chang'e 1" is China`s first satellite to be launched in the lunar exploration series. The programme will eventually include a soft landing device and a lunar rover for site exploration and inspection. This will use the Long March 3 A carrier rockets thereby indicating that the entire programme has indigenous content.

At the present levels of deployment as well as projected plans, the Chinese would not pose a threat of destabilizing the global space order. The United States will no doubt remain supreme. Yet the contours of space dominance with a player of China`s singular focus and ability to expend national resources unhesitatingly in areas of prime concern would some day challenge even NASA. In characteristic style the Chinese dismiss notions of competition in space but Chinese ASAT and the nuanced approach to projecting this achievement is a cause of concern. Chinese intentions may well change once Beijing feels it has attained the critical mass where it can challenge US supremacy. This time may come sooner rather than later.

SAST JUNE 2007

China - A Technology Super Power by 2050?

The World is focused on Chinese economy growing at a scorching pace of over 10 percent for the past decade. The Chinese increasingly denote their economic size in trillions rather than billions, the first sign of a global power of consequence. Behind this supra capability building however are hidden roots of a technology super power which are seldom noticed. Chinese focus on development of strategic technologies will denote Beijing taking up the lead in many spheres by the middle of the 21 st Century. This will be a remarkable achievement unparalleled in human history. While Western countries attained technology superiority in the industrial age through centuries of investment in education, research, development and pioneering, the Chinese model denotes how an objective oriented strategy can attain the same results in a much shorter period of time. The key to Chinese technology competence is development of niches in fields which provide it competitive advantage. China is thus content to let other countries control technology though not necessarily production in mass produced goods such as cars or cell phones. It wants to retain edge in technologies in complex fields such as space, nuclear energy, ballistic missiles and satellites which will provide it the lead in times to come.

China `s satellite killer test has been well documented, what is little known is that it has developed capabilities in other anti satellite technologies such as jamming which will provide it an edge in the years ahead. Another important gain is in the field of cyber warfare. Chinese scholars in their seminal work, "Unrestricted Warfare" had indicated almost a decade ago as to how developing asymmetric capabilities would enable China overcome some of the disadvantages of the industrial age. By a systematic analysis, China continued to invest in capabilities which will provide it an edge on a modern battlefield in the information age. Thus we find the Chinese were one of the first to field information warfare units. Militarily China would be able to do catch up with Taiwan by 2010 that is just three years away as per assessment made by the Jane`s Defence Weekly a few days ago. While its capability may appear regionally oriented at present, China is set to expand its global reach for which an estimate of 2050 may not be far fetched.

Some of the Chinese capability building is in fields which may seem quite antiquated by Western standards. For instance the project to build an aircraft carrier or a large size passenger and cargo plane may be passé for Washington or Brussels . But in an age when not many new advanced aircraft or carriers are being manufactured, Beijing may be able to attain significant advantages in the years ahead.

The Chinese are well aware that the path to technology superiority is not likely to be easy. The ability of the Chinese to conceptualize, have a long term view at the same time establish time bound markers for achievement of objectives and goals facilitates progress in diverse fields. For instance in Space technologies, the Chinese White Paper on Space has clearly delineated concepts and time lines for progress providing Beijing a standard by which to measure its achievements. Willingness to invest in strategic technologies is another strength which is typical of the Chinese. Beijing knows that technology competence is prohibitively expensive and also competitive. The large amount of resources poured by the Chinese in space and nuclear technologies which have dual use has been a cause of concern for the United States over the years.

On the other hand China is not shy of acquiring technology from its erstwhile ideological partner Russia or other countries including Japan and the United States . Russia is China `s most trusted and favoured weapons supplier providing it state of the art aircraft and shipping capabilities including fighters and hovercraft. Other less responsive countries are tapped through innovative diplomatic and non diplomatic means. China is acutely conscious of sensitivities of other countries and is assiduous in maintaining proportionate relationship in this sphere. It is also very quick and sensitive to react to any insinuations of threats being developed through capacity building. A battery of Chinese researchers most avidly counters each theory of threat building point by point, building a welter of logic which appears irrefutable.

Apparently there is no way that the West can counter Chinese rise as a technology power by 2050. Cooperative engagement may appear a better strategy for despite its burgeoning ambitions, Beijing has many technology blind spots which it cannot overcome without the help of the West.

(SAST MAY 2007)

APRIL 2007

Chinese Technology Development Plans

The major gaps in scientific fields in China were identified as an environment for innovation and capacity. This was particularly so in the fields of geology involving interdisciplinary work in breakthrough technologies. A second area was mechanical engineering wherein capability to manufacture, "high-end digitally-controlled equipment and large heavy-load equipment" was lacking. So was the capability for precision, manufacturing in all its dimensions. Metallurgical engineering and aeronautical engineering were other spheres where more inputs were envisaged.

China has prioritized three areas in space technology for development to include, satellite navigation systems, remote sensing and space communications. These being dual use technologies, will provide the Chinese considerable leverage economically as well as militarily. Chinese forays into space are also likely to comprise of research in Greenfield areas of black hole physics and hard X-rays emanating from the same. The plan was a part of the program of the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-10). For this purpose a recoverable satellite, Shijian-10 is to be launched and a telescope established. The key areas for research in space were identified as, space astronomy and solar physics, space physics and solar system exploration, and, microgravity science and space life science. For satellite launch a new generation of rocket, "Long March V" was to be developed in seven to eight years which would be used to launch a space station.

The six major goals for space science development identified were as follows:-

• A manned spaceflight and moon exploration;
• Independent development of Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope (HXMT)
• Launch recoverable space science experimental satellite;
• Participate in the Sino-Russia Mars space exploration program;
• Do more research into key technologies for space solar telescope;
• Begin key scientific and technical research into space science

Another field in which major progress is being made is that of large sized aircraft. China is slated to have jumbo aircraft by 2020 which are planned to be indigenously developed. The development of large aircraft is considered a multi faceted capability which will provide China immense political as well as economic advantages. Politically the Chinese compare this with development of atomic bombs or launching space craft.

(SAST APRIL 2007)

MARCH 2007

China`s Technology Development Programs

China`s giant strides in research continued with the launch a US $2.5 billion program for fast track research and development in key technologies covering 147 fields with particular reference to four areas: efficient energy and resource utilization; agricultural technologies; information technology sector and for manufacturing equipment; and population, health and public security. The five year program called as the Key Technology Research and Development Programme has been launched during the month. Amongst many varied areas the focus is apparently on energy with wind power stations, diversion of water from the south to the north and efficient use of coal. (SciDev.Net). Other strategic technologies under development include sectors such as chemicals, metallurgy and electronics.

Chinese strategic technology enhancement program also includes development of large transport aircraft. China`s aviation market is slated to reach 2194 planes with a market value of $ 180 billion over the next 20 years. This will be the main driver for the Chinese aviation industry. Aircraft with over 100 tons capability and 150 seats are being developed though internationally large transporters have a capacity of over 300 seats. The development of such aircraft entails integrating multiple disciplines to include aerodynamics, materials science, and avionics. China has announced adequate capabilities in all these spheres to be able to develop large transport aircraft.

More information on Chinese anti satellite tests is now available. As per analysts this is the first successful test by the Chinese but they are reported to have carried out at least three such tests earlier. The Chinese are also having other satellite destruction programs including electronic neutralization and orbiting parasite micro satellite which have the potential to destroy satellites passing close by. Total dependence of the United States for conduct of military operations including surveillance, communications, reconnaissance and weather monitoring on satellites makes Washington extremely sensitive to any offensive actions by China or any other state in outer space. Chinese success in anti satellite weapons is now increasing focus on a Treaty to prevent arms race in space on the lines of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The USA is reported to have rejected a demand for the same in 2002 on the plea that the Outer Space Treaty 1967 sufficiently catered for such eventualities. Increased presence of defence activities in space is now becoming a cause for concern. Reports of India likely to create an Aerospace Command are also creating some consternation in global space circles.

FEBRUARY 2007

China`s Anti Satellite Test

Closely following the White Paper on Defence, the Chinese launched an anti satellite ballistic missile which destroyed an old weather satellite at an orbiting distance of 865 kms from the Earth. The range is significant given that most US low earth orbiting satellites follow a path which is closer than 800 kms. Thus China indicated a capability of taking on US spy satellites which orbit much closer than the targeted satellite.

The tests followed typical Chinese style politics. Thus Chinese sources maintained complete silence for over a week after conduct of the test, though US intelligence had leaked information to the media. US and Japan targeted China for entering an arena which has been considered taboo for an arms space race by the global community over the past few decades. Fear of fragments and debris damaging satellites in orbit was another apprehension by nations as Britain and Australia.

Chinese officials in their first statement after the event indicated that the test was not directed at any particular country and also affirmed that China will not participate in an arms race in space. "But China stresses that it has consistently advocated the peaceful development of outer space and it opposes the arming of space and military competition in space.----China has never, and will never, participate in any form of a space arms race", said the voice from Beijing. What ever be the politics surrounding the test, China has demonstrated a major capability though this only matches a test carried by the Americans two decades ago in 1985. A US scientific satellite was destroyed in orbit at a much lower altitude of 525 kms then. Comparatively the technological capability may be limited but being only one amongst three nations in the World possessing the same, Chinese national power has received considerable impetus. The environmental problem in space is far more relevant with the possibility of large debris left by a kinetic energy anti satellite weapon hitting other satellites in the jam packed low orbital path.

China`s rising technological aspirations are being rapidly met by a modernization

schedule which is reported to reach levels of developed nations at 1960 by 2015.This will herald the entry of China as an industrialized society. From there to the next stage of an information society will be even faster. By 2020 China the super power may take World stage.

(SAST FEBRUARY 2007)