Nov 14, 2010

Obama India Visit: Great Expectations

            Much is expected from the coming visit of the United States President Barack Obama to India from 6 to 10 November. The visit has raised great expectations as it provides the meeting ground for leaders of the Worlds largest democracies. This would be seminal in many respects and inspiring leadership of both President Obama and Dr Man Mohan Singh has raised great expectations both in New Delhi and Washington. The think tanks in the United States in particular have come up with a number of policy prescriptions which include early sponsoring of membership of the United Nations Security Council to controlling what is seen in India as an increasing flow of arms aid to Pakistan.

From the security point of view, India’s National Security Advisor, Mr Shiv Shanker Menon highlighted the nature of Indo – US relations at a lecture at Carnegie in the United States and pitched for a change in perspective to an Asia Pacific one thus, “Traditionally, India and the USA have viewed each other across the Eurasian landmass and the Atlantic Ocean. We get a different perspective if we look across the Pacific, across a space that we share and that is vital to the security and prosperity of our two countries. Apart from changing geopolitics, the emergence of new transnational and global threats also brings us together. For instance, there is much we have in common in disarmament and non-proliferation. We both have a shared vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. We should support moving step by step to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons, pending their complete elimination. And we both seek to reduce nuclear dangers, whether from terrorists gaining access to nuclear weapons or from nuclear proliferation. And it seems to me that we both have a common interest in reforming the institutions of global governance to reflect today’s realities and to make them capable of dealing with today’s challenges”.

Apart from the strategic congruence, Dr Man Mohan Singh’s excellent personal rapport with the American President within a short time that had led to the extra ordinary gesture of a first state visit for the Indian Prime Minister in the White House after Mr Obama took over the Presidency also drives hope that the outcome will be significant. Key agreements can be expected in the fields of space, science and technology and education which are areas of prime concern for India. Space provides an effective sphere for engagement as NASA has already acknowledged the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) as one of the leading space agencies in the World with which it would like to cooperate. Similarly science and technology collaboration will provide much impetus while education is a field where much can be done between India and the United States.

            However there appear to be some hurdles as well. With American employment numbers dropping down and difficult internal elections which will decide the majority of the Senate and the Congress in the United States, Obama may be compelled to continue to hark upon reduction of outsourcing which will be unpopular in India where hundreds of youth are gainfully employed in providing BPO services to many foreign companies based in the United States.

            On the other hand the Indian side is harping on the fact that revelations made by the wife of David Coleman Headley in 2005 on his activities which included trips to Delhi to film various locations of possible terrorist strikes were not shared. The view in New Delhi is that apriori information would have prevented Mumbai 26/11.  The Indian and American authorities will now be hard put to place these issues in perspective and gestures of visiting the Taj in Mumbai where terror attack took place are not likely to assuage the sentiment particularly in Mumbai which suffered maximum fatalities in the strike.

All this makes movement in relations very limited except perhaps lifting of some DRDO establishments from restrictive list which will open the route for participation of American companies in joint ventures. Will the government tweak the Nuclear Liability Act to provide some relief to the Americans remains to be seen, this will be a difficult exercise given that the Act has been opposed by major political formations some of which as the CPI M who are not favourably inclined towards the United States.

All these issues may make the four day visit of the President just another high dignitary coming to India rather than a seminal one that we had hoped for. The Government is also playing down expectations with the External Affairs Minister indicating that India was not expecting US President’s endorsement to a permanent seat in the Security Council. Despite all this let us hope that great expectations do not become great frustrations in the weeks ahead.

NOV 2010