Jan 4, 2010

Indian Defence Industry: DevelopingProfile

About10 offset contracts have been signed so far under the extant DefenceProcurement Procedure. The companies with whom the offset contracts have beensigned include M/s Rosoboronexport Russia,M/s RAC MiG Russia,M/s Fincantieri Italy,M/s Lockheed Martin USA, M/s Boeing USA, M/s Elta Israel,M/s Israel Aerospace Industries Israel and M/s Rafael Israel. The estimatedvalue of the offsets involved in these contracts is over Rs. 8909 crores.

TheIndian defence industry is thus slowly assuming a joint public and privatesector profile though the process may take long as there are entrenchedbureaucracies which are resisting the same. Therefore it is more than likelythat this may take a few decades or more. The profile emerging indicates thatthe private sector in particular will be having a number of collaborativeprocesses in place that would involve foreign companies and this would also becatalysed by the process of offsets which are being taken up in a big way.

Themix of public and private sector and of the foreign and indigenous players isbecoming all the more important to acquire high technology particularly inareas of air defence, aero engines, surveillance and other sophisticated fieldswhere the DRDO has not been able to enhance capacities. Therefore a partnershipwith a foreign firm has become inevitable.

India Strategic Assets Readiness?

FormerAtomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar put to rest the controversyover the possession of a thermo nuclear device. "I think that isguaranteed. Army should be fully confident. There is no doubt about the arsenalat their command." he said to a private news channel. He also indicatedthat the country had not just one thermo nuclear device but in, “plural”.

Failureof two successive Agni-II missile, on May 19 and November 23 and reports ofPakistani nuclear arsenal of 70-90 warheads as compared to India’s60-80 has led to some internal debate within the Armed Forces as per a reportin the Times of India. Senior officers seemed to play down the apprehensionsthus, ‘‘Nuclear weapons are not war-fighting weapons. But without reliable andsecure ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) and SLBMs, it’s difficult toeven brandish a credible deterrent.’’ ‘‘Even a small stockpile of nuclearwarheads, whether they are 25 kiloton fission bombs or the much-largerthermonuclear ones, is enough to deter an adversary only if you have tried andtested delivery systems and command and control structures for an effectivesecond-strike,’’ he added as per the Times of India. DRDO chief V K Saraswatreiterated that, ‘‘In terms of deterrence, Indiahas the capability which it needs to have. Any deterrence is the function ofwhat is the threat against which you are creating it and in that particularaspect, we are totally self-sufficient,’’ said Saraswat. [Times of IndiaReport by Rajat Pandit 16 December2009].

TechnicallyIndia is havingonly two operational missiles and a fighter aircraft that is the Prithvi andAgni I with a maximum limitation of range of 700 kms. Given that these would benormally deployed approximately 200 kms on own side of the boundary, the rangerestrictions would imply an effective operational range of just about 500 kmsthat would considerably reduce deterrence which would have to be overcome byspeedy operationalising of the Agni II which has a 2000 kms range and also AgniIII which is still undergoing trials.

Interms of developing a sea based triad, there was some good news as the RussianNavy formally inducted Akula-II class attack submarine `K-152 Nerpa' which isbeing leased to Indian Navy for a 10-year period. India'sfirst-ever indigenous nuclear submarine, aptly named INS Arihant (annihilatorof enemies) is also likely to be inducted in another two years or so. The Navyplans to have three SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines with long-range strategicmissiles) and six SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines) in the long-term.

Aminiature 83 MW pressurised light-water reactor will be `fired' in 2010 afterwhich INS Arihant begins extensive sea-acceptance trials followed by thetesting of 700-km range K-15 SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles).

            Operations at sea need sufficientexperience particularly in terms of operating complex and highly dangeroussystems as nuclear submarines, therefore the Indian Navy’s leasing of the Akulaclass from Russiawill provide it the necessary experience before it is able to induct theindigenous submarine in two to three years. Given the need to ensure highdegree of safety of the nuclear submarine, this would provide a hands onexperience to the Indian Navy for nuclear submarine operations thereby ensuringthat the Indian nuclear submarine, Arihant would be operational as soon afterlaunch thereby cutting back on induction time. Since the design of the Arihantis based on the same pattern as that of the Akula this would be a very usefullease for the Navy.

            Indiasuccessfully test fired 'Dhanush', with a range of 350 km, from a naval ship.The Dhanush is a short-range, sea-based, liquid-propellant ballistic missile, anaval variant of the Prithvi series. In its current configuration, the Dhanushvariant is 9.0 m in length, 1.1 m in diameter, and weighs between 4,000 and4,600 kg. It uses a single-stage, liquid-propellant engine, giving it a maximumrange of 350 km with an accuracy of 50 m CEP and payload of 500 kgs.

Reportsindicate the possibility of a two stage version, the first being solid fueledand the second liquid. The missile's warheads are nuclear, high-explosive, orsub munitions. The missile can also be equipped with multiple payloads, to bedispensed during its flight. The use of high-explosive and sub munitionwarheads enables the Dhanush to be used against airfields, manufacturingcomplexes, and military units, as well as enemy ships. The utility of theDhanush missile as a nuclear deterrent is limited given that it has a shortrange, has to be fired from a ship which itself is vulnerable and a largetarget or targets can also be taken on by land based Prithvi missile as well.

Itis evident that Indiais looking for a nuclear submarine for long to establish the triad of nuclearcapacity with the missile and aircraft option operationalised as of now.However the failure of the Agni II a 2000 km missile in trials recently hasraised concerns about the viability of even a dyad or one with very limitedrange. Therefore it would be imperative to underline the challenges faced inthe strategic field by the country given lack of an effective missile and seabased deterrent. The growing need for enhancing capacities in these spheresthus is underlined.

Army Doctrine Review

            The Indian Army Doctrine issued in2004 is undergoing a revision. A major discussion was held in NewDelhi on 29 and 30 December as per media reports toreview the Doctrine. The key facets under discussion were a possible `two-frontwar' with Chinaand Pakistan,asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, strategic reach and joint operationswith IAF and Navy.  "A major leap inour approach to conduct of operations (since Operation Parakram) has been thesuccessful firming-up of the cold start strategy (to be able to go to warpromptly)," said Army chief General Deepak Kapoor, at the closed-doorseminar.

            Gen Kapoor reportedly identifiedfive thrust areas to drive the new doctrine, ‘two-front war', `optimise'capability to effectively counter `both military and non-military facets' ofasymmetric and sub-conventional threats like WMDterrorism, cyber warfare, electronic warfare and information warfare, enhancingstrategic reach and out-of-area capabilities to protect island territories; asalso give assistance to littoral states in the Indian Ocean Region,interdependence and operational synergy among Army, Navy and IAF for strategicplanning and execution in future wars. "For this, joint operations,strategic and space-based capability, ballistic missile defence and amphibious,air-borne and air-land operations must be addressed comprehensively," hesaid. "Harnessing and exploitation of technology also includes integrationof network centricity, decision-support systems, information warfare andelectronic warfare into our operational plans," was the last facet addedby the Army Chief. [Times of IndiaReport by Rajat Pandit and PTI Reports of 30 December 2009].

            With a review of the Army doctrinewhich has been long overdue now taking place there are many issues which arecoming up such as capability to use technology to fight a counter terrorismbattle particularly in urban settings therefore the need for weapons which canshoot around the corners. This has also led to more and more demands on othersophisticated technologies particularly related to surveillance and targetacquisition. The army is also likely to focus on cyber and information warfareaids for offensive as well as defensive roles.

            On the other hand there is a majorrequirement of transportation both fixed wing and heliborne if the doctrine forout of area contingency operations is to fructify. This would necessitate majorupgradation of the fleet of helicopters and aircraft which are required by thearmy. Above all with a fixed pie in the defence budget, it is unlikely that anymajor acquisitions would be feasible unless an additional budgetary outlay iscarried out and the acquisitions are realistically appreciated.

Western Air Command Confers

TheCommanders’ Conference of Western Air Command at Head Quarters Western AirCommand in Subroto Park New Delhi presided over by Air Marshal NAK Browne AirOfficer Commanding-in-Chief Western Air Command had the theme, ‘People First,Mission Always.’ For its commanders conference Issues related to OperationalPreparedness and development of Operational Infrastructure, induction of newequipment, Safety – on ground, in air and of weapons and the welfare of airwarriors were discussed as priority areas.

Addressingthe commanders, Air Marshal Browne said, “The IAF at present is in the processof undergoing a major transformation in various fields. As Western Air Commandoccupies an important place in this transformation drive the endeavour has tobe speedy operationalisation of new induction with the commitment to preserveand maintain our equipment to the highest possible standards. The activation ofAdvanced Landing Grounds (ALGs) like Daulat-beg-Oldie, Fukche and the recentNyoma has considerably enhanced the IAF’s operational envelope in supportingour ground forces in the Northern Areas”. Discussions on concept of operationsof Western Air Command, including operations in support of the three affiliatedArmy Commands and planning and effective use of resources also formed a part ofthe present Commanders’ Conference.

Defence Capacity Building Under Fire

            With reports in section of the mediaof lack of preparedness of the Indian Army giving even exact percentages andnumbers, the Ministry of Defence issued a quick rejoinder stating thatmodernisation is a deliberate process and is progressive in nature, thedeficiency of the military hardware is reviewed at regular intervals andreplacement of these are projected after deliberation based on the operationalrequirement and enhancement of operational efficiency keeping pace withmodernization. Projection of military hardware requirements has already beenmade and these are at various stages of procurement.

TheDefence Procurement Procedure is also amended periodically to ensuretransparency and effectiveness in procurement. It is further clarified that thecombat efficiency of the Army at no point be doubted as the militarypreparedness and combat efficiency is the foremost and primary task. There hasbeen no compromise in this issue. The progress of modernization is monitoredclosely at various levels to minimize the shortfall. It may also be understoodthat our Armed Forces are fully prepared, battle-worthy and capable to counterany challenges at very short notice, in keeping with the task assigned todefend the Nation. [Based on MOD India Press Release].

            A report in the Times of Indiaindicated that since the 1999 Kargil conflict, Indiahas signed up for deals worth over $50 billion to acquire fighters, warships,tanks, missiles, other weapon systems and platforms from outside the country.Some of the big defence deals have been indicated as follows:-

* US: 6 C-130JSuper Hercules aircraft for $962 million (2007); 8 Boeing P-8I planes for $2.1billion (2009)

* Israel:3 Phalcon AWACS for $1.1 billion (2004); Rs 10,075 crore project to jointlydevelop medium-range surface-to-air missile systems (2009)

* France:6 Scorpene submarines in a Rs 18,798 crore project (2005)

* Russia:Admiral Gorshkov and 16 MiG-29Ks in $1.5 billion package deal (inked in 2004but aircraft carrier's refit to zoom up to $2.5 billion now from original $974million); 230 Sukhoi-30MKIs for $8.5 billion

* UK:66 Hawk AJTs in a Rs 8,000 crore project (2004)

            Big projects in offing are asfollows:-

* Rs 42,000crore project for 126 multi-role combat aircraft

* Rs 30,000crore project for 6 new-generation submarines after Scorpenes

* Rs 20,000crore artillery modernisation programme to acquire 1,580 towed guns, 814mounted gun systems, 180 self-propelled wheeled guns, 100 self-propelledtracked guns and 140 air-mobile ultra-light howitzers

* Rs 20,000crore for around 800 helicopters, ranging from VVIP and heavy-lift to attackand light utility. [Times of IndiaReport by Rajat Pandit, 1 January 2010].

            While it is felt that there has beena big bang in the Indian defence budget there are not many acquisitions whichmay actually contribute to increasing capacity while most are to make up theexisting deficiencies. Thus apart from acquisitions of the Boeing P8Is, theC130 J transport aircraft and the AWACS, the overall build up is to make upexisting deficiencies which are overly large and are showing gaping holes indefence capital equipment which is now being made up. Still the pace ofacquisitions would remain low and therefore there would be substantial gaps evenas additional increments come in particularly in terms of fighter aircraft andsubmarines where there is a gap between what is held and what is required whichmay extend for a long period even till 2020 unless acquisitions are made intime.

            The two key issues that have emergedin the responses of the Ministry of Defence to the Parliament include nonappointment of the CDS and the deficiency in critical areas in officer ranks asthe Border Roads organization. This is evident with the dilatory attitude adoptedby the government towards these issues with the CDS being circulated to themajor political parties for building consensus. This in turn is costing thearmed forces necessary synergy which would impact overall functioning andprospects of further progress. Similarly apart from the Armed Forces the borderroads are also hampered by lack of officers thus how development will beactivated on the borders remains to be seen. The government would have toaddress these issues on priority to enhance the jointness as well asoperational preparedness over the years.

            The government also disclosed thatIndian airspace has been violated 11 times by aircraft, helicopters and UAVs(unmanned aerial vehicles) of Pakistan,China and USover the last one year. "In six separate incidents, five UAVs and afixed-wing medium-sized aircraft from Pakistan violated Indian airspace,'' saiddefence minister A K Antony in Rajya Sabha. In all, Pakistanhas violated Indian airspace 43 times since 2006. During the same time, PakistanArmy has violated the ceasefire as many as 128 times. China,in turn, has violated Indian airspace on three occasions. While two helicopterseach had entered Ladakh on June 21 and 24, another Chinese aircraft had crossedthe border on May 13.

JAN 2010