Apr 30, 2008

Bangladesh : Natural Disasters, Political Disorder

Key Trends

Cyclone Sidr Tests Bangladesh Resilience

An extremely severe cyclone Sidr, packing a speed of 240kmph, hit Bangladesh on 15 November creating major mayhem in the 15 southern districts — Chittagong, Cox`s Bazar, Noakhali, Chandpur, Feni, Barisal, Pirojpur, Lakshmipur, Jhalakati, Bhola, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bagerhat, Satkhira and Khulna. Initial estimates put the death toll at over 3000 with some estimates even predicting a total loss of lives upto 10,000 due to follow up casualties. The Cyclone is said to have affected over 26 lakh most poor persons.

The effects of Sidr, is likely to imperil food security at the household- and macro-levels and compel the government to spend a much higher amount of foreign exchange to import food-grain to meet the huge shortfall, as per economists. The cyclone damaged the standing Aman paddy, a major crop in cyclone-affected southern districts. India rushed humanitarian relief supplies of about Rs 4 crores for cyclone affected victims of Bangladesh. The first consignment comprised of about 40 tonnes of material including tents, blankets, made ready-to-eat food packets and medicines. [MOD India press release]

Comments

The peculiar location of Bangladesh makes it highly disaster prone and hence all measures for risk avoidance and mitigation need to be undertaken. The state has done well so far in effectively implementing a warning system, which has evidently worked and thus reduced the number of casualties. However subsequent relief and rehabilitation process has been slow and hence there is considerable loss of life and property. Effective capacity building by creating infra structure for survival is essential. While aid is now rushing into the country the quantum having risen from $ 150 million to almost $ 600 million, the reach to the lowest level where suffering is taking place is still very limited thereby indicating that loss of life will continue.

Afroza Ahmed an architect and urban planner has proposed the following measures to provide immediate relief and rehabilitate and resettle the displaced population systematically by undertaking the following measures:-

Future master plans are proposed to include:-

( http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=12890).

Political Posturing : Advantage Awami League

The Awami League (AL) interacted with the Election Commission and presented several proposals for consideration. Most significantly the Party abandoned its stance of opposing a provision of the existing electoral laws, which empower the defence forces including army with magistracy powers during parliamentary elections. The party, however, opposed the EC proposal for replacing the Representation of People Order (RPO) 1972 by a new order, arguing that some necessary amendments should be brought in the existing RPO 1972 and 1982 without replacing them completely. To bring transparency in party funding, the AL proposed that the EC formulate separate rules including a provision for government funds for political parties on the basis of their strength. It also proposed introduction of transparent ballot boxes in the next parliamentary elections. (Daily Star Report and New Age Report).

Comments

Acceptance of authority of the EC and reconciliation with a number of its previous contentions against the government is a sign that the Awami League is avoiding a confrontational attitude and will participate positively in the election process which comes about in the next few months. After a virtual split in the BNP, the Awami League stands good chance in the elections ahead.

BNP Party Crisis

Appointment of Saifur Rahman and Hafizuddin Ahmed as the party`s acting chairperson and secretary general and proceedings of the October 29 meeting of the standing committee, held without her consent were rejected by detained chairperson of Bangladesh National Party Chairperson, Khaleda Zia. However the Election Commission on 5 November sent an invitation to the Saifur Rahman-led faction for a dialogue on electoral reforms on 22 November. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) ATM Shamsul Huda said the EC followed the 'doctrine of necessity' in deciding to invite the Saifur-led faction.

Top leaders of Saifur-led BNP faced the wrath of Khaleda Zia loyalists while Lt Gen (Retd) Mahbubur Rahman, member of BNP standing committee, was assaulted near the grave of the party's founder late president Ziaur Rahman on 7 November. The detained BNP chairperson, Khaleda Zia, on 13 November issued a legal notice to the EC, asking for withdrawal of its invitation letter to M Hafizuddin Ahmed acting secretary-general of the party for dialogue on electoral reforms even as the government-backed faction of the Party on 14 November took control of the party`s central office at Naya Paltan. On 18 November the High Court (HC) stayed for four weeks operation of the EC letter inviting Maj (retd) Hafizuddin Ahmed to its electoral talks as the BNP representative.

Analysis

The happenings within the BNP indicate four trends as per political analysts as follows:-

The anointment of the Hafiz faction by the EC was far too sudden to be considered as driven by democratic forces within the BNP. Hence blocking this by the High Court may be in order. This may provide some time for reconciliation within the BNP and could lead to a possible compromise. The interim government should refrain from engaging in inner party politics for in the long term this may not be fruitful. 

HUJI under the Scanner

Mufti Mohammad Hannan, leader of the banned Islamist outfit Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) on 1 November made a confession in the court of the chief metropolitan magistrate in connection with the grenade attack on an Awami League rally on Bangabandhu Avenue in Dhaka on August 21, 2004. (New Age Report). In another report 65 activists of the outfit were reportedly trained by its 'chief trainer' Bulbul at camps in Jhenidah from 1999 to August of 2005, claimed a HuJi deserter. HuJi emerged in the country in early 1992 through open declaration of Jihad and started its full-fledged militant activities including training of cadres in Jhenidah in 1999. The training was conducted under supervision of HuJi chief Mufti Abdul Hannan. ( http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=12055)