May 15, 2011

Sino Indian Relations: A Positive Shift?

The rocky road of Sino Indian relations seems to have once again come out of the trough of the past two years with a clear signal of rapprochement after the Sanya bilateral on 13 April 2011 between Indian Prime Minister Dr Man Mohan Singh and Chinese President Hu Jintao. The statements coming out of the Summit from both the sides are all positive. It is evident that each has addressed the others concerns and thus forebodings are sanguine.

India for instance wanted the stapled visa issue for citizens of Jammu and Kashmir to be resolved, while the Chinese seem to want to restart the defence exchange programme. For India stapled visa issue contests sovereignty on Jammu and Kashmir while for China lack of defence cooperation with one of its many formidable neighbours means a perception of, “aggressive,” behaviour. It appears that Beijing after the past few months of bellicosity has decided to abandon this approach. More over both sides have established an intermediate mechanism for resolving the so called transgressions on the Line of Actual Control between that of flag meetings and Special Representatives.

Significantly, it was the National Security Adviser Mr Shiv Shanker Menon who was the “Sherpa,” for the bilateral thereby indicating that the talks were likely to be, “security and border,” heavy. Mr Menon in the post bilateral press conference highlighted that defence exchange which he said was never called off will be a part of the, “Year of India-China Exchange in 2011,” which  will also include visits by senior political leaders, Strategic Economic Dialogue and people-to-people contacts. The working mechanism for consultation and coordination on border affairs is a new initiative which Menon said was suggested during Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to New Delhi in last December and which will enhance peace and tranquility on the border areas. The Special Representatives (SRs) on the other hand will continue their work towards a permanent boundary settlement. 

At the working level meetings of commanders, flag meetings, or the border commanders’ meetings are being held regularly but possibly given the rancour over the last few years over transgressions and media pressure that has been building up on the issue, “a mechanism at the official level which will consult and coordinate on border affairs relating to the maintenance of peace and tranquility, if there are any issues; and will explore cooperation in the border areas.--------- It will implement the agreements that we already have in place to maintain peace and tranquility that is the 1993 and 1996 Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement and the CBM agreement,” has been devised as per Mr Menon.

            Clearly the government is looking at an arrangement similar to that on the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir with Pakistan hoping that more interactions, border trade and people to people movement should open up the path for maintaining peace and getting away from the humdrum of patrol crossings that has been the main paradigm in the past couple of years. This was evident from remarks of Mr Menon, “It [border mechanism] also includes border trade which we have; it also includes the exchange of mails across the border which we do; also there is a question of whether people travel across that border; a whole series of other issues are also involved in cooperating across the border.  Once the defence exchanges and formal delegations from both the sides meet each other, it is hoped that joint training and exercises will also be carried out”.

            The Indian government is no doubt taking a holistic view of relations with China the recent statements by Lt Gen K. T. Parnaik, India's Northern Army Commander of Chinese presence in Gilgit Baltistan not considered a dampener as possibly the talks with Beijing had moved ahead for establishing the mechanism. General Parnaik had said: "Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the Northern Areas is increasing steadily... There are many people who are concerned about the fact that if there was to be hostility between us and Pakistan, what would be the complicity of Chinese." "Not only they are in the neighbourhood but the fact that they are actually present and stationed along the LoC," he added as per media reports.

A subsequent Times of India Report claimed that, “highly placed sources,” have also indicated that US intelligence agencies have reiterated to Indian authorities increasing presence of Chinese troops all along the LoC. "We have a strong real time intelligence sharing mechanism with the US and they have conveyed the same thing to Indian agencies including RAW – that these troops are stationed all along the LoC in PoK. They conveyed this to Indian agencies independently without us seeking any confirmation from them," an official was quoted by the Times of India. Why Indian intelligence should be dependent on US sources for corroboration of information across its own land borders however remains a mystery?

Reports following the meeting indicated that Major General Gurmeet Singh, chief of the Delta Force of the Rashtriya Rifles is likely to lead the Army delegation to China which will comprise representatives of the Army's Central and Eastern Commands as well as the Army Headquarters.

            The Sanya bilateral indicated that both sides discounted these intelligence and security fears and strived to establish additional structures for resolving the issue of transgressions. With China increasingly under pressure at home as well Beijing possibly did not want to confront challenges on the border or perhaps Hu Jintao does not want to leave a legacy of confrontation with India, we will never know. Suffice to say Sanya meet offers some hope that the daily, “sniping,” of transgressions may be a thing of the past and India and China and look forward to more constructive security cooperation.

Related Tags

• sino-indian
• LOC
• Relations
• shift
• CBM