Outline Trends South Asia – February  2010

Afghanistan

·        London Conference on Afghanistan prepares road map for security, governance and development with transfer of responsibility to the Afghan government the main theme in five years.

·        Four track plan for reconciliation and integration of Taliban denotes advanced negotiations with some factions including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

·        Indian policy review on Afghanistan in the offing, however sustaining support to the Afghan people has paid rich dividends.

Bangladesh

·        Indo Bangladesh relations continue upward trend seeking resolution of various contentious issues such as boundary enclaves, water sharing, transit and trade facilitation.

·        Opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) castigate, “surrender” to India and attempts to raise anti India sentiment against the Awami League’s pro Delhi stance.

Bhutan

·        Bhutan and China hold 19^th Round of Boundary Talks in Thimpu from 11 to 13 January, agree to carry out joint field survey.

China

·        Sino US relations suffer a setback with China suspending military engagement after US plans to sell weapons to Taiwan announced.

·        Dalai Lama’s visit to the United States may increase tension as President Barack Obama likely to meet His Holiness.

Maldives

·        President Mohamed Nasheed establishes primacy in politics with opponent and former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom standing down in favour of younger leadership.

Myanmar

·        Myanmar government continues to focus on holding elections, likely date would be October. Aung Suu Kyi release before elections seems unlikely.

Nepal

·        Formation of High Level Political Mechanism to break the political impasse raises hopes of national unity government.

·        Maoist child soldiers leave internment camps, Prime Minister claims that integration of the PLA cadres will be completed within the stipulated period, however skeptics denote some concerns.

Pakistan

·        The political battle for survival of the President Mr Asif Ali Zardari after the detailed order by the Supreme Court dismissing the National Reconciliation Ordnance gains momentum with Mr Zardari gaining support of the Regional Assemblies less Punjab.

·        The security situation remains precarious with very high level of casualties in 2009, while continuing violence in January. The Army is carrying out sporadic operations in Bajaur along with tribal militia.

Sri Lanka

·        Incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa wins the Presidential elections with a wide margin defeating closest rival former Chief of the Army General  Fonseka in an elections preceded by violence.

·        Tamils in the North and East overwhelmingly vote for General Fonseka increasing political challenges ahead of the parliamentary elections, thus flux is anticipated in the days ahead.

India Foreign and Security Policy

·        Former Foreign Secretary Mr Shiv Shankar Menon nominated as the National Security Adviser (NSA), with the Home Minister Mr P Chidambaram exercising full control on internal security, new National Security Architecture in the offing.

·        Indo Pakistan relations remain static, Indo China relations show some improvement, while Indo South Korea relations surge ahead with the visit of the President.

·        The new coastal security architecture roll out continues with some gaps met, however major challenges remain.

India Terror

·        Telangana issue remains contentious as a committee being formed to consider issue.

·        Continued terror advisories leads to increase in security across air ports as well as other vulnerable areas with possibility of use of para gliders or micro light.

Kashmir

·        Quiet Dialogue put off, as Pakistan instructs the moderate leadership to link the same with Indo Pakistan talks.

·        Violence rises in Jammu and Kashmir with a number of attacks in Srinagar, Sopore, Pulwama and Kishtwar. Terrorist hubs in Sopore, Bandipore, Lolab, Rajwar and Tral

North East

·        Peace parleys with United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) in the offing, National Democratic Front of Boroland (Daimary faction) remains intransigent.

·        Manipur schools reopen after a four month break; however militancy situation remains a cause of concern.

·        Naga talks unlikely to attain a breakthrough with the NSCN IM resisting unification with non mandated groups and insisting on integration of Naga areas.

Left Wing Extremism

·        Dilemma of government strategy continues as Railway Minister Ms Mamata Banerjee and Jharkhand Chief Minister, Shibu Soren offer talks with Maoists while Home Ministry continues to pursue Green Hunt Strategy.

·        Capacity building of the government forces continues with employment of satellite imagery, UAVs and linking of intelligence across states.

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